World Demand for Indian Wheat - Golden Chance to Exporters

- Commodity Current - Jayavadan Gandhi

- Possibility of correction in spice items due to income pressure

Nowadays the Holi festival is coming with the echo of Russia-Ukraine war. Inflation in Indian markets is at an all-time high, with petrol-diesel as well as most commodities including gold-silver and spices, oilseeds, pulses on the rise. The atmosphere is heating up, especially in edible oils and spices. In the last fortnight, prices of edible oils have gone up by Rs 10 to Rs 15 per liter and spices by Rs 20 to Rs 5 per kg. The same is true of beans. From 5 to 20 in the last week of February. Turmeric- Coriander has gone up by Rs 20 and chilli by Rs 15 per kg.

Rayda oil prices are at a high of Rs 15-150 and refined oil is hovering around Rs 150-14. Edible oils are yet to become self-sufficient. At present 30 to 5 quantity of edible oil depends on imports. Apart from palm oil, other refined oils are mostly imported from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine while palm oil is imported from Malaysia and Indonesia. About 90% of refined sunflower oil comes from Russia and Ukraine. Currently the war has put a brake on imports from both countries.

Apart from crude oil and edible oil, the country has almost achieved self-sufficiency by making tremendous progress in agricultural products. Russia's recent attacks on Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and European countries have heated up oil and natural gas markets. At the same time, alternative deficit security is at stake.

Wheat crisis is looming, especially in the Middle East and North Africa. Prime Minister Modi has also made a special appeal to the Indian wheat exporters, pointing out that there are golden opportunities for Indian wheat exporters to export wheat to these countries as Ukraine, which supplies wheat to the above countries, is in a state of close trade with Russia.

However, wheat exports have increased by 3% till January 2021. Demand for Indian wheat and rice has soared in overseas markets. According to six reports, the demand for Indian wheat in the world market has increased by more than 50 per cent in the last ten months as compared to the year 2020-21. Wheat exports increased by US ૭૪૨ 15 million between April and January 203.

Exports of parallel rice to wheat also rose by 12 per cent. On an average, Indian agricultural exports have grown to around US ૯૭ 1,200 million in the last ten months. Which is targeted to increase to US 4,000 million next year. Exports of Indian cereals, parallel meat, poultry as well as dairy producers and fruits and vegetables have also increased significantly.

Despite the historic rise in crude oil, the Indian market has performed very well overall. Despite strong selling pressure from foreign institutional investors over the last six months, the stock market is expected to rise by another 15 to 18 per cent during the year 207, thanks to the remarkable cooperation of domestic domestic investors. The parallel commodity market is also getting strong support.

Metal commodities are also booming due to the war. Prices of aluminum scrap have gone up by 20 per cent, especially due to the closure of aluminum mines. High prices have also affected households. On the other hand, as the heat continues to rise, crop yields are gaining momentum in the agricultural markets as well.

In the year 206, both cumin and coriander are expected to be evergreen. The futures are getting strong support as the fundamentally spot markets are getting stronger on the back of lower crop yields of less than 50 per cent and carryover stock. The current math could change if the new corona virus that appears in the coming days causes a worldwide lockdown-like situation.

However, if there is a correction in cumin due to income pressure, the market is likely to come down to 15,000. But the average cumin-coriander tone seems to be strong. Along with cumin, Isabagol is also witnessing a 5 to 20 per cent decline in production this year, which has led to a sharp rise in prices ranging from Rs 200 to Rs 500. Rs. Prices range from Rs 2,000 to Rs 500. However, business circles are also predicting that prices will improve if revenue pressures remain. However, on an average, most of the agricultural commodities are likely to offer excellent prices to farmers this year.