The budget week will see the Sensex collide between 47888 and 44888

(Gujarat News Correspondent) Mumbai, Ta. Saturday, January 30, 2021

The bullish excess in stocks has finally come to an end. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), which have been flocking to stocks for several days, have been seen making massive profit bookings on a daily basis in the last days of January. After the new history of the Sensex in 2016, the market has declined by 200 points in the last few days and the Nifty by 1150 points. Extensive profit-booking in stocks has been seen, of course the correction was inevitable to calm the overly tumultuous rally and for the long-term health of the market. Which is seen many days later. Now a lot of people are waiting for the Union Budget to be presented next week. The finance minister worked to boost public confidence in the record market boom, signaling a historic budget this time around. But the subsequent correction is now seeing investors' confusion grow again. With the RBI's lending policy review meeting set to take place next week, caution will be needed in stocks next week.

Even in the event of a historic budget presentation, stocks will have a chance to ease by selling: Beware of trading

With the Union Budget set to be unveiled next week and the historic incentive provisions likely to be introduced this time around, it is possible that next week will see a tumultuous rise in stocks with the budget. But with the introduction of this budget provision, it is imperative to ease the bullish trade in stocks, realizing that the stocks have a golden opportunity to ease. The Economic Survey has sought to boost sentiment by projecting a positive GDP growth of 11 per cent for FY 203 and a V-shape recovery for the current year's projected negative GDP growth of 7.5 per cent. But as Indian stock markets are still in the overbought zone, a correction is still inevitable and it would be advisable for the stocks to ease.

Look at the results of Bharti Airtel, Hero MotoCorp, NTPC, State Bank of India, Britannia, Mahindra

Next week in the corporate results season will be February 2, Bharti Airtel's results, February 3, Hero MotoCorp, HPCL, NTPC and State Bank of India's quarterly results, as well as February 4, Britannia Industries and Mahindra End. Along with this, the sales figures of automobile companies for the month of January 2021 will be released from February 1.

Reserve Bank Lending Policy, January Manufacturing PMI, China, US, Europe

The market will keep an eye on the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting starting next week, February 4, 2021, and its decision on February 2, 2021. Before this, all eyes will be on the Union Budget to be presented on February 1, 2021. On the international front, China's manufacturing PMI and the US as well as the euro area's manufacturing PMI will be on the lookout. In this crucial week, the Sensex is likely to see a collision between 7 and 8 and the Nifty between 15 and 16.

Dark Horse: Sanofi India Ltd.

BSE (2007), NSE (SANOFI), listed Rs. 10 paid-up, with 1: 1 share bonus issue in the year 19, having 2.50% bonus equity in total equity, 30.50% foreign promoters holding Sanofi INDII LTD.) The company, which has been in India for over 15 to 20 years, has over 2000 employees in the healthcare sector in various segments like Diabetes and Cardiovascular Solutions, Central Nervous System, Infectious Diseases, Multiple Sclerosis, Respiratory, Thrombocytopenia, Is active in the field. The company has three manufacturing facilities and one development center in Goa and Hyderabad. More than 50 countries receive the company's finished formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), medical devices and vaccines. Surrounded by 100 countries, Sanofi Group provides healthcare solutions in more than 150 countries worldwide and is one of the world's leading reputable companies. Sanofi Pasteur's inactivated polio vaccine has been given to every second child in India. Sanofi India produces 10 billion tablets annually and meets 5% of domestic demand with locally produced products. The company has performed well in profitability in the first nine months of the Covid 15 period. The top five brands of the company include Lentus, Combiflame, Allerja, Emeryl, Clexen with a CAGR of 11.5 per cent.

Zentiva deal:

The company has completed the sale of its Zentiva unit for Rs 21 crore. After the deal, the company will focus on the branded formulation business.

Cash reserves:

Sanofi India has a cash reserve of Rs 1,150 crore, valued at Rs 4 per share. In addition, Sanofi India has given a loan of Rs 20 crore to Sanofi France on a corporate guarantee, valued at Rs 500 per share. Accordingly, adding the total additional value of Rs 3 per share to the expected book value, the book value for December 2020 is expected to be Rs 150.

Share holding pattern:

Promoters Hackst GmbH has 70.9 per cent and Sanofas has 0.05 per cent, promoters have 30.50 per cent, mutual funds have 11.5 per cent, Aditya Birla Sun Life Trustee has 7.5 per cent and UTI-MNC fund has 3 per cent. Nippon Life India Trustee has 1.7 per cent and SBI Magnum Midcap Fund has 1.4 per cent. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have 11.5 per cent, Aberdeen Global Indian Equity Ltd has 1.7 per cent, insurance companies have 2.81 per cent, Life Insurance Corporation of India has 2.09 per cent and HDFC has 1 per cent. . While individual share capital holders with up to Rs 3 lakh have 4.5 per cent.

Book value:

It is Rs. 206.91 in December 2016, Rs. 7.5 in December 2016, Rs. 4.5 in December 2016, Rs. 4.5 in December 2016, Rs. 1050.5 in December 2017 and Rs. 19.50 in December 2020 as expected. Sanofi India, on the other hand, has a cash reserve of Rs 1,150 crore, valued at Rs 4 per share. In addition, Sanofi India has given a loan of Rs 20 crore to Sanofi France on a corporate guarantee, valued at Rs 500 per share. Accordingly, adding the total additional value of Rs 2 per share to the expected book value, the book value for December 2020 is expected to be Rs 121.50.

Dividends:

20% in 2014, 210% in 2014, 30% in 2014, 200% in 2020 (with special dividend)

Financial results:

Sanofi India Ltd. having a financial year from January to December

(1) Full year January 2015 to December 2018:

Net income increased from Rs.50.50 crore to Rs.3060.50 crore and net profit increased from Rs.50.50 crore to Rs.312.50 crore. EPS per share increased from Rs.12.5 to Rs.17. 3 were filed.

(3) Third Quarter July 2020 to September 2020:

Net income fell to Rs 2.50 crore from Rs 2.10 crore, net profit rose to Rs 19.50 crore from Rs 19.50 crore, earnings per share increased from Rs 4.5 crore to Rs 4.21 crore. Have done.

(2) The first nine months from January 2020 to September 2020:

Net income fell to Rs 5171.50 crore from Rs 311.50 crore, net profit rose to Rs 2.50 crore from Rs 208.50 crore, nine months earnings per share increased from Rs 12.5 to Rs 15. 2 have been achieved.

(2) Expected full year January 2020 to December 2020:

The full-year earnings per share is expected to be Rs 312.50, with a net profit of Rs 4.5 crore out of the expected net income of Rs 5 crore.

(2) Expected full year January 2021 to December 2021:

Out of the expected net income of Rs 300 crore, net profit of Rs 2.50 crore and earnings per share is expected to be Rs 30.15.

(2) Valuation: B:

In the field of pharmaceuticals, even if we give a P / E of 7 to this multinational pharmaceuticals company Sanofi, the expected earnings of the stock can go up to Rs.

Thus, (1) Foreign Promoter Hackst GmbH has 70.8% and Sanofas 0.02% together, the Promoters have 30.60% (2) Bonus Equity of 4.50% in total equity and (3) Expected earnings per share in full year 2020. 313.50 and expected book value of Rs. 12.50 while Sanofi India has a cash reserve of Rs. 1190 crore, valued at Rs. 4 per share. In addition, Sanofi India has given a loan of Rs 20 crore to Sanofi France on a corporate guarantee, valued at Rs 500 per share. Accordingly, adding a total additional value of Rs 3 per share to the expected book value, the stock is now available at Rs 3.50 on the NSE, BSE with a P / EA of Rs 3.50 against the expected book value of Rs 121.50 in December 2020.

Manoj Shah: Research Analyst (SEBI REG. NO. INH000000107)

The author is a SEBI registered research analyst: Disclosure cum (readers should take special note) Warning: (1) The author has no investment in the shares of the above companies. (2) Our resources for researchers may be of direct or indirect interest to brokers, promoter views, personal research analysts, portfolio management or their team. (3) Maintaining a 50% stop loss from the Reachers price, in particular, is advice and warning. (2) Valuation H, BB, BBB, Top Gainers These are all possibilities, so don't invest temptingly. (2) Generally, out of every 10 scrips, 4 scrips are true and 4-5 scrips are false. This type of research is excellent. (2) Feedback E-mail: All the above points also apply to the answers given in arjuneyems@gmail.com. (2) The reader class, the investor class to take their own personal decisions at personal risk. The writer, editor and anyone of Gujarat Samachar will not be responsible for your loss. So invest by recognizing the risk of the stock market.