The threat of climate change is increasing rapidly

- The threat of climate change is pushing global ecosystems closer to breaking point

The average global temperature recorded in June and July in the year 2023 has broken all previous records. Forest fires are on the rise and now double the forest area is affected by such incidents compared to 20 years ago. Globally, average sea surface temperatures surpassed all previous records recorded in May, June and July. According to the Center for Science and Environment, 314 of the 365 days in 2022 were days when the weather experienced unexpected changes somewhere. From these things, it is clear that the threats related to climate change must be faced urgently and cannot be avoided. Efforts over the past 30 years to eliminate or reduce the risks associated with climate change have not been effective. Between 1990 and 2019, global emissions of environmentally harmful gases (greenhouse gases) increased from 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to 48 billion tons of CO2e. Developed countries are said to be responsible for the emission of harmful gases. These countries were originally exempted from obligations to reduce emissions.

Developing countries have contributed the most to global emissions of harmful gases in the past and present, and per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low. It was also realized that world emissions would increase to meet the social and development needs of developing countries. But now it needs to be amended as China should be excluded from the list of developing countries. This is because China's per capita emissions increased from 2.8 to 8.9 tonnes of CO2e between 1990 and 2019. It also surpassed the per capita emissions of Western Europe in 2019. The increase in China's emissions during this period accounted for 54 percent of the global increase in emissions.

India's per capita emissions in 2019 are still lower than China's in 1990. The point here is that the responsibility to tackle the fundamental challenge of climate change should still rest on the shoulders of developed countries. In the period from 1990 to 2020, emissions by Annex 1 countries decreased by 272.4 million tons of CO2e (36 countries show reductions in emissions of harmful gases), but we must also understand that this is the main reason. Russia and Eastern European countries recorded significant reductions in emissions.

This decline has not come from climate-friendly policies, but from the decline of highly energy-intensive industries in these countries. Russia and Eastern European countries have reduced emissions by more than 80 percent from Annex I countries. Since 2007, only Western European countries have experienced significant reductions in emissions. Developed countries and China are still proving to be the biggest obstacles to tackling climate change risks.

Unfortunately, the campaign to stop climate change is not being driven by global climate diplomacy. The Paris Agreement changed the direction of climate diplomacy in two ways. Firstly, the participation of developed countries in reducing emissions has weakened and secondly, the responsibility has also been placed on the shoulders of developing countries. The impact of neglecting climate justice is also visible on the zero emission plans of high-emitting developing countries. Looking ahead, total global emissions must remain below 500 billion tonnes of CO2e to achieve the goal of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C.