SBI Research cut India's GDP estimate for the second quarter to 5.8%

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AHMEDABAD: After downgrades by rating agencies Moody's and Fitch, domestic agency SBI Research has now cut its growth forecast for the country's growth rate to 5.8 percent for the July-September quarter due to weakness in manufacturing activities and mounting pressure on margins.

A report issued by SBI Research said that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter of the current fiscal may be 5.8 percent, which is 0.30 percent lower than the previous average estimate. The GDP figures for the July-September, 2022 quarter are to be released by the government on November 30.

According to a team led by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, head of SBI Research, operating profit of non-banking and financial sector companies fell 14 percent in the second quarter, up from 35 percent in the same quarter a year ago.

According to the report, the revenue growth rate of these companies has been good in this quarter, but their profits have declined by about 23 percent compared to a year ago. Apart from this, pressure has also been seen on the capital of listed companies other than banking and financial sector. The operating margin of companies fell to 10.9 percent in the second quarter, as against 17.7 percent in the same period last year, due to increase in production costs.

According to SBI Research, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter may be 5.8 percent, which is much lower than the average market estimate (6.1 percent). With this, the annual growth rate for the current financial year may be 6.8 percent, which is 0.20 percent less than the previous estimate of the Reserve Bank of India.

Ghosh said the estimate shows that there was a slowdown in economic activity between June and September but the figures are expected to improve in the third quarter with an improvement in economic activity in October. He said that despite the global shock, rising inflation and lack of external demand, several indicators show the resilience of the Indian economy to withstand the shocks.

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