Slow pace of renewable energy addition challenges the country's move towards clean energy

- Rising power demand will not bring expected reduction in coal consumption in the country

With the economic recovery in the country, the power demand is increasing sharply, resulting in increasing pressure to fully utilize the power generation units and coal mines. Apart from economic recovery, power demand is also increasing as a result of rising temperature. Since the beginning of the current year, i.e. in January, the power consumption has increased by 12 percent or 13.50 billion KWh compared to January 2022, according to the government statistics. Peak-hour demand also increased by 10 percent year-on-year to 211 gigawatts. Coal-fired power generation also increased by 18 percent or 16 billion kWh.

In 2022, the overall increase in electricity consumption was 6 percent and the last decade has seen an increase of more than four percent. The increase in power demand is due to structural reasons rather than weather conditions. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the country's manufacturing and service sector has been consistently above 50 for some time now, which indicates a recovery in the economy.

Government sources also said that coal mines and rail infrastructure are under heavy pressure to meet the increasing demand from power producers. Coal production and dispatch of coal through trains increased by 12 percent last year. Coal stocks at coal-fired power producers also remain consistently lower than required due to increased demand. Keeping in view the increasing demand, the government has also instructed the manufacturers to import more coal. Thus, the consumption of polluting fuel coal is unlikely to see the expected reduction in the near future.

The government is expecting to see a reduction in demand for coal with an increase in renewable energy production in the country, but the addition of renewable energy is seen to be much slower than the target. If we look at the development of renewable energy in the country, the picture does not look very encouraging.

By 2022, the government has created 121 giga watts of installed capacity, but the development of renewable energy is seen only in a few states of the country. Renewables accounted for 29.50 percent of India's overall installed capacity, but only five of the country's 33 states and Union Territories have a higher presence of renewables. Six states account for 78 percent of the total capacity of renewables. 33 percent of them are in Gujarat and Rajasthan. By 2022, the installed capacity of renewable energy has reached 121 GW as against 175 GW. According to an estimate, India has a potential of 1491 GW for renewable energy, but only eight percent of it is being utilised.

Although India is committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2070, there are frequent statements from the government that the consumption of polluting fuels like oil and coal will continue. The government of India needs to make huge investments to reduce the consumption of polluting fuels like oil and coal and switch to renewable energy. As long as we do not survive in the present, we will not reach the world of clean and clean energy, said the Oil Minister in a recent statement. In a low-income country like India, the migration to clean energy needs to be cheap and sustainable, he added. Perhaps because of this, the development of renewable energy in the country is slow.

The increase in power demand on the one hand and the slow pace of renewable energy addition on the other hand, there is no question whether the country's dependence on coal-based power will stop completely. I don't think so. Keeping in view the fact that any weakness in power supply affects industrial production, the government is already making efforts to avoid power supply disruptions in the summer of the current year.

It is a fact that despite the assurances given by many countries of the world, including China and India, to become pollution free, the reduction in coal consumption is not seen as it should be. For countries that talk about reducing pollution, reducing their consumption of coal or other polluting fuels does not seem possible at present. Now is the time for the policymakers of every country to reframe energy policy to shift from coal-based power generation to renewable energy.

Keeping in view the fact that we currently have to depend on imports for key equipment used in renewable energy generation, the government has called on solar manufacturers to avail of the announced assistance of $2.40 billion. On one hand, India is trying to rapidly increase the production of clean energy, while on the other hand, even after a year of Russia-Ukraine war, it does not seem likely to stop. The longer the war goes on, the more it will hinder the ongoing efforts of the countries of the world for clean energy because most of the countries have come under the impact of the war in one way or the other, and their priority is to solve the problem, thus in many countries of the world including India. The migration to clean energy does not seem likely to be achieved in the time frame envisaged.