Food shortages likely following drought forecast

- Commodity Current - Jayavadan Gandhi

The possibility of a drought in the country this year has raised the possibility of a rise in the prices of food items. Amid speculations of inflation in pulses, oilseeds, spices and grains, the government has undertaken an exercise to increase the buffer stock of grains and pulses. Among grains, especially wheat, which is the most needed, prices have been at high levels for the past few years, supporting support prices. The government has announced the support price of wheat at Rs 2125/- per quintal. While the highest rise in prices is in Maharashtra reaching a high level of Rs 4150. 3000 rupees in Gujarat, 2700 rupees in Madhya Pradesh, 2500 rupees in Rajasthan, higher in the range of 2100 to 2200 rupees in Uttar Pradesh-Haryana-Punjab areas. As government procurement is also currently underway, there is no possibility of a fall in wheat prices. In the last year or so, the price of wheat has increased by six to seven percent and that of flour by 10 to 11 percent. However, since the government has banned the export of wheat from May-2022 last year, the prices have remained under control. However, it is estimated that around 50 to 70 lakh tonnes of wheat has been exported. In pulses, especially Tuvar and Tuvardal, due to shortage of goods and limited imports, the prices have crossed Rs 11,000 per quintal with a rise of Rs 200 in the last week. The consumption of urad and mung beans is increasing as the prices of wheat are very high. The prices are continuously moving above 8000 due to the pull of goods.

The color of the boom in spice products remains unchanged in some products. However, last week's bullish sell-off put a brake on the rally. Coriander futures, which were at a high of Rs 11,000 last year, have now fallen to the range of Rs 6,300 to Rs 6,400, i.e. 40 to 45 per cent cheaper due to abundant production and weak demand. Due to the double production of coriander, the market is sluggish. Cumin futures remained soft last week, with the quintile falling 12-13 percent in the fortnight to 43,000. Also, the prices of cumin have come down in the range of 8,600 to 8,700 with the price of Rs. Excessively high prices have dampened the local economy. However, as the stock of cumin is extremely weak this year, there is a strong possibility that the cumin market will remain strong in June-July against the possibility of increasing foreign and domestic demand. Parallel to cumin, even in fennel, the pressure of income is breaking, the market is soft due to a fall of 200 rupees in the prices of medium quality in the range of 3000 to 3700 and in the range of 4200 to 4800 in the range of good quality desi Mathadi. Farmers have got good prices this year due to the high prices of cumin seeds, while fennel is also in mixed demand. Turmeric, which had traded as high as 8,500 last week, has seen futures fall below 8,000 due to profitable selling pressure in the market. The export of turmeric has been around 1.70 lakh tonnes with an increase of 10 to 11 percent. The income of turmeric in the agricultural market of Maharashtra and Telangana states has been significant.