The direction of economic development of the country will depend on the policies of the government

- Rapid growth in logistics infrastructure and digital transformation in the country

There are very different views about India's economic prospects. Some people see a lot of potential in it while some feel that the size of the government is too big and the policies are not clear. The good news is that investment cores that invested heavily in China during its initial boom are seeing similar symptoms in India and are now looking to increase their investment here. These investors want to reduce or limit new investment in China and emerging markets see huge investment potential in India. Things like exports worth $5 billion by Apple in the first year support this.

India's logistics infrastructure and digital transformation have also contributed to this. Annual growth is expected to exceed 6 percent and GDP per capita is also expected to increase to $2,500 to $5,000 in six to seven years. A slightly pessimistic view is that India has missed opportunities and made wrong choices to achieve growth from government spending. This has resulted in a bottleneck affected by uncompetitive private sector regulation, inadequate and unreliable infrastructure, limited access to capital, fee barriers, ineffective educational environment for skill development and employability.

Instead of structural changes for low-cost infrastructure and cost-effective governance, the government chose to cut corporate tax rates to spur growth. The truth is that India is well positioned with its economic strength, dynamism, favorable demographics and high productivity, yet is expected to grow at an average of six percent per annum this decade. Some statistics support this view.

For example, lack of customer demand and project delays. Consumer demand is strong for high-end items. But the lower levels are weaker. In March 2023, delays in infrastructure projects were at their highest level since 2004. It includes 57 percent projects worth more than Rs.150 crore. This has led to an increase in expenditure of around 20 per cent, which is half of this year's capital expenditure budget. The same problem is also seen in the Gati Shakti National Master Plan. When public access is allowed, it will be interesting to know how important the project management and coordination process is for timely implementation.

Growth of eight percent or more will require structural changes. This will begin with policies that provide affordable and reliable infrastructure, ensure access to capital, and eliminate tax incentives. Increasing productivity with infrastructure everywhere enables more people. More and more youth and women are willing to participate and contribute. The next level of productivity improvement will require more profound changes. These include security at the law and order level, meaningful education and skill development, radical changes in agriculture and an informed approach to productivity and sustainability.

If there is fast and reliable 4Y communication across the country and if most people use these services, productivity can be revolutionized. It is not just communication, it can increase profitable use through content, development, technology selection and organization.

At the intermediate and second intermediate levels, until recently the emphasis of government policies was on fibre. Bringing fiber to homes on a large scale is far from a cost reality. Now is the time for high speed wireless. However, necessary policies have to be adopted for that. Thus certain policies have to be adopted for future development.