Loan moratorium will increase banks' troubles, NPAs of 5 big private banks will double

New Delhi, 12 July 2020 Sunday

The facility of loan moratorium implemented to meet Covid-19 could cause trouble for banks. According to a report released by India Ratings, the non-performing assets (NPAs) of the country's five largest banks could rise by more than five per cent due to a decline in loan disbursements due to net interest margins and moratorium. These include HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and IndusInd Bank. These five banks have a 25% stake in the entire banking sector and a 75% stake in the private banking sector.

The report predicts that the NPAs of these banks may increase from 2.7 per cent in FY20 to close to 5 per cent in the current financial year. In FY19, the NPA of these banks was 2.3 per cent. According to the report, the increase in NPAs may be small, but refinancing will be a challenge again. As demand for loans dwindles, banks are investing their excess liquidity in low-return options. These include government bonds and well-ranked corporate securities.

According to the report, the deposit growth of these 5 banks has been 18.8 per cent in FY20. It was 18.5 per cent in FY19. There, the loan growth rate during this period has come down to 15 per cent from 19.1 per cent. In addition, in the last six months, the RBI has added Rs 1.7 lakh crore in liquidity to the banking system.

The report predicts that the Kovid-19 epidemic will have a devastating effect on the banking sector's GDP. This will put a strain on the economy. In addition, banks have invested a large portion of their excess liquidity in reverse repo rates. The reverse repo rate has fallen by 215 basis points to 3.35 per cent in the past one year. In addition, the cost of funds has been reduced by 5 to 6 per cent. This can lead to negativity.

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