The Sensex will hit 37111 to 36222 in the new week

(Gujarat News Correspondent) Mumbai, Ta. Saturday 11 July 2020

The end of the Corona epidemic is not near. Amid reports of a resurgence of positive cases in many Asian countries and a resurgence of the virus in European countries, markets in Asia and Europe have seen a setback over the weekend. On the other hand, despite the US-China embargo on Chinese companies before the outbreak of the Corona virus in China, the US-China trade war is raging, with corporate results picking up in the June 2020 quarter and US economic recovery accelerating. After a long lull in the Indian stock market, the stock market has seen a softening as overbought positions have eased as funds have started booking large profits in stocks over the weekend. An index-based surge is likely to hit the market next week, with more companies announcing next week's results season and a look at the US-China trade war as corona virus cases begin to rise again in various states.

RIL's AGM, June inflation figures, ECB, Japan's interest rates, monsoon progress monitored

In the new week, Indian markets will now be watching the first Virtual 9th ​​Annual General Meeting (AGM) of Reliance Industries on July 12, 2020. With Mukesh Ambani's success in freeing the company from debt through the success of the rights issue with the massive investment in Geo platforms and the achievement of being ranked eighth in the world's top 10 richest people, investors will now keep an eye on what new announcements Ambani is announcing in this historic growth. With this, the retail inflation figure for the month of June 2020 will be released on July 12, 2020 and the wholesale figure (WPI) will be released on July 17, 2020. As the monsoon has progressed well so far, the market will keep an eye on further progress in the coming monsoon season. On the international front, the US-China trade war, interest rates to be announced by the Bank of Japan on July 18, 2020, China industrial production figures for the month of June, July 30, and the European Central Bank in Europe on July 12, 2020. Indian stock markets will be on the lookout for global markets.

Now look at Wipro, Infosys, HCL technology in corporate results

Corporate results for the April-June 2020 quarter season, which will begin next week, will be released next week on Wipro Ltd's July 12, July 2020, Infosys's July 18, July 2020 and HCL Technologies' July 19, 2020 results. Given the poor results released by TCS last week, the possibility of weaker results from more IT companies will necessitate caution in the market. Thus, the eventful next week is likely to see the Sensex between 2111 and 3 and the Nifty between 10311 and 10311.

Dark Horse: Globus Sprits Ltd.

BSE (2016), NSE (GLOBUSSPR) listed, Rs. 10 paid-up, established in the year 18, Globus Sprits Ltd., one of the largest grain based distillery operations in India with a distillery capacity of 150 million bulk liters per annum. Is. The major key segments of the alcohol industry are Indian Made Indian Liquor (IMIL), Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL), IMFL Bottling and Alcoholic Beverages with Integrated Production Processes in Alcohol.

Manufacturing facilities:

The company has one of the world class fully integrated, multi-feedstock and state-of-the-art distilleries in Behror-Rajasthan and Samalkha, Hisar-Haryana with an annual production capacity of 150 million bulk liters and an annual bottling capacity of over 120 lakh. These fully integrated plants of the company have production facilities of Rectified Spirit, Extra Neutral Alcohol (ENA), Indian Made Indian Liquor (IMIL) and Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL). The company does bottling for India's top three IMFL companies. As a result of the lockdown, the company grew its capacity by 3.6 per cent in the fourth quarter from January to March 2020, compared to 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter. Due to de-bottlenecking in Rajasthan in the financial year 2020, the total capacity has increased to 120 million bulk liters as compared to 150 million liters last year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the average self-consumption has been 61%. In the fourth quarter, from January to March 2020, the revenue from bulk alcohol increased to Rs 13.8 crore from Rs 19.50 crore in the same period last year.

The company facilitates other brand owners to manufacture their products as OEMs through its infrastructure. These include United Spirits Limited, ABD India. The company is the No. 1 private entrepreneur in Rajasthan's IMIL with a market share of 8%. In Haryana, it is the No. 4 private entrepreneur with a market share of 8%. The company has a market share of 2% in West Bengal. The company also sells its IMIL in Delhi. In the financial year 2020, the company has launched its sales in 10 states through Univiv.

DDGS-feed segment:

Global Spirits has also entered the animal feed to match the lucrative opportunities in the Indian feed segment and current businesses. The company has entered the Indian market with High Nutrient Feed Ingredient Distillers Dried Grains Solubles (DDGS). DDGS is a by-product of the alcohol manufacturing process. The distillers remove starch from the grains in the alcohol process and the remaining nutrients remain useful for poultry.

The company is also exploring opportunities for ethanol by increasing capacity utilization and improving yields. In addition, the company is investing in the Future Growth segment, semi-premium and premium segments (Univiv). While the business opportunities due to the Kovid-12 epidemic have been fast. The company exports its various liqueur products to countries in Western Europe, West Africa and South Africa. The company said in a recent conference call that Globus' own sanitizer business is small, but the company is selling a significant amount of its alcohol to sanitizer manufacturers at home and abroad.

The company's plants were completely shut down on March 8, 2020 due to a lockdown as a result of the Corona epidemic-Covid-18. The company resumed operations in April 2020 with the manufacture of sanitizers. Country liquor sales have been affected by the closure of liquor shops. ENA volumes are affected when plants are closed. The company has been operating for the manufacture of hand sanitizers using extremely low capacity. However, the debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.7 per cent, with the company repaying long-term debt of Rs 21.5 crore in FY20 and reducing short-term debt significantly. The company says it is difficult to estimate the material impact of Kovid-12 for FY2021. But good exports are expected in both ENA / bulk alcohol exports and domestic markets as the main raw material for the production of hand sanitizers. The company says demand for country liquor has been revisited since the lockdown was lifted. The company derives 30 per cent of its total revenue from bulk alcohol, 7.5 per cent from IMIL, 1.2 per cent from franchisee IMFL and the remaining 15 per cent from others.

Share holding pattern:

Among promoters, Templeton Strategic Emerging Markets Fund Four, LDC with 12.5 per cent, FPIs with 0.9 per cent, Alternate Investment Funds with 0.9 per cent, corporate bodies with Rs 1.8 per cent, Individual share capital holders up to Rs 3 lakh have a shareholding of 12.50 per cent.

Book value:

Rs.19.5 for March 2018, Rs.12.5 for March 2016, Rs.151.3 for March 2016, Rs.12.5 for March 2017, Rs.12.71 for March 2020, Rs.12.5 for expected March 2021

Financial results:

(1) Fourth quarter from January 2020 to March 2020:

Net profit rose 30 per cent to Rs 61.50 crore from Rs 20.50 crore, compared to Rs 30.50 crore, quarterly earnings per share rose to Rs 4.5 crore from Rs 5. Did.

(2) Full year April 2018 to March 2020:

Net income rose 15 per cent to Rs 117.05 crore from Rs 4.8 crore, net profit rose 5 per cent to Rs 2.81 crore from Rs 20.5 crore, a full-year earnings per share rose to Rs 10.5 crore. Achieved Rs.

(2) Expected full year April 2020 to March 2021:

With an expected net income of Rs 15 crore and a net profit of Rs 3.15 crore, earnings per share is expected to be Rs 4.5.

(2) Valuation: B:

Even if the breweries and distilleries industry is limited to an average P / E of 8, giving the company only 4, the stock could fetch Rs 305. Which considering the current market situation valuation single b. The company's stock is currently available on the NSE, BSE at a price of Rs 12.05 with an expected earnings per share of Rs 4.5 as on March 2021 and a P / EA of only Rs 4.5 against the expected book value of Rs 12.5.

Manoj Shah: Research Analyst (SEBI REG. NO. INH000000107)

The author is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst: Disclosure cum (readers should take special note) Warning: (1) The author has no investment in the shares of the above companies. (2) Our resources for researchers may be of direct or indirect interest to brokers, promoter views, personal research analysts, portfolio management or their team. (2) Maintaining a 30% stop loss from the Reachers price, in particular, is advice and warning. (2) Valuation H, BB, BBB, Top Gainers These are all possibilities, so don't invest temptingly. (2) Generally, out of every 10 scrips, 4 scrips are true and 4-5 scrips are false. This type of research is excellent. (2) Feedback E-mail: All the above points also apply to the answers given in arjuneyems@gmail.com. (2) The reader class, the investor class to take their personal decisions at personal risk. The writer, editor and anyone of Gujarat Samachar will not be responsible for your loss. So invest by recognizing the risk of the stock market.

Review-modification of recommendation made as Dark Horse

(1) Banswara Syntax Ltd. : SELL

From here, it was recommended to buy the shares of Banswara Syntex Limited as Dark Horse on May 2, 2020 at a price of Rs. 4.5, which has now reached Rs. 3.50 on Friday, July 10, 2020. Which is now recommended to sell from here.