Retail inflation to hit five-month high, 7.4 percent in September: Deutsche Bank

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Ahmedabad: India's inflation figures have been overall positive for the last two months due to the slowdown in global crude oil prices and a slowdown in other food inflation, but there are fears that the country's inflation may be on the rise again.

Deutsche Bank has projected India's retail inflation rate to hit a five-month high of 7.4% in September. Not only in September but there is a risk of higher inflation if food and vegetable prices rise further in the coming months, the bank added.

Bank of India Chief Economist Kaushik Das said CPI inflation will be 7.4% y-o-y in September 2022 against 7.0% in August as per our nowcasting. India's retail inflation remained above Reserve Bank of India's upper range of 6% for the eighth consecutive month in August. .

According to the bank's estimate, inflation will average 7% in October-December and 6.4% in January-March. Inflation is expected to average 6.9% for the full year, higher than the RBI's estimate of 6.7%. RBI's median inflation target is 4%.

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