Warning against recession rises due to trade war between US-China

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Mumbai, Ta. August 12, 2019, Monday

The trade war between the United States and China is increasing with the threat of recession and no trade agreement between the two countries seems possible before the US presidential election of 9th. Another $ 2 billion tariff from China to the United States will be impacted, OM Goldman Sachs said in a report.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump announced a 1 percent tariff on China's $ 2 billion imports from September 1st. Following Trump's announcement, China has stopped the purchase of US agricultural products.

The United States has listed China as a country of currency misconduct. China has rejected the accusation that it has tampered with the yuan to gain competitive advantage. For more than a year, China and the United States have been waging a trade war over issues such as tariffs, subsidies, technology, intellectual property and cyber security.

In view of the expected impact of trade tensions between the two countries, the US economic growth rate for the fourth quarter has been reduced by 8 basis points to 5.5 percent.

Overall, we have increased our estimate of the impact of the trade war, Goldman added. Considering the increase in the cost of raw materials due to supply pulls, US companies may be forced to reduce their domestic activities. This uncertainty may also cause companies to reduce their capital expenditures.

China's exports are falling and imports are falling more than expected due to increased US trade pressure. The decline is indicative of more pressure on the world's second largest economy.

Chinese manufacturers are facing sluggish demand at home and abroad, and the huge increase in tariffs by the US is likely to put more pressure on these already marginal profit margins. There is a prevailing view that China may be forced to declare more incentives to cut trade off. Global growth is not expected to improve until next year, said an analyst.


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