The worst post-independence recession in India due to Korana: Crisil

New Delhi, 26 May 2020 Tuesday

Credit rating agency Crisil said on Tuesday that India was facing its worst recession ever. This is the fourth post-independence and the first post-liberalization recession, he said.

According to the credit rating agency, the economy is expected to shrink by 5 per cent in the current financial year due to the Corona virus epidemic and the ongoing lockdown.

The growth rate could fall to 25 percent in the first quarter

"India's GDP is expected to decline by 25 per cent in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year," Crisil said. He said, "On a real basis, about 10 per cent of GDP could be permanently depleted.

In such a scenario, the growth rate that we have seen before the epidemic will be difficult to see or achieve for the next three financial years.

Weak monsoon is the main reason for the three-time recession so far

According to available data, in the last 69 years, the country has experienced a recession in only three financial years, 1957-58, 1965-66 and 1979-80. The reason for this was the same every time and that was the monsoon blow.

Which affected agriculture and resulted in the collapse of much of the economy. Crisil said the recession in the current financial year 2020-21 is somewhat different, as this time there is relief on the agricultural front and assuming the monsoon is normal, it could ease the recession.

Regarding the government's Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic package, Crisil said it lacks short-term measures to ease the economy but has made a number of important reforms, which could be seen in the medium term.