Due to the pressure in the agricultural and industrial sectors, the growth rate is about to slow down

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AHMEDABAD: India's economy is likely to remain sluggish in the third quarter of fiscal 2024, October-December, due to a slowdown in industrial growth, agricultural production and consumer spending. According to analysts, the gross domestic product growth figure for the December quarter of 2024 may hover around 6.5 percent, a sharp decline from the 7.6 percent growth rate in the second quarter of the current fiscal.

The Reserve Bank of India has earlier expressed hope that the growth rate will be 6.5 percent in the third quarter. Third quarter GDP data is due to be released on Thursday, along with the second advance estimate for fiscal 2024 and the first revised estimate for fiscal 2023.

Indicators like Index of Industrial Production, Electricity Demand, Steel and Cement Consumption can be seen as a reflection of the growth of the industrial sector, which increased by 5.9, 10.2, 14.5 and 4.9 percent respectively during the third quarter. The Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector has declined to 56.8 from 57.9 in the December quarter.

The growth rate of the agriculture sector is also likely to be less than 4.7 percent in the December quarter of FY2023. The first advance estimate of the kharif crop shows that the overall production of food grains this year will be lower than last year. However, some recovery is expected in the agriculture sector in the next quarter due to higher area under rabi sowing. Aggregate consumption in rural areas also slowed down in the December quarter. Consumption and luxury spending supported the economy in the previous quarter.

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