Speculation fears non-stop bullishness despite margin rein in cumin

- Commodity Current - Jayavadan Gandhi

Cyclone Biparjoy last week brought a break in the ongoing kharif sowing work, followed by monsoon rains in Rajasthan after Gujarat. About 40 to 45 percent of the plantation is currently reduced as compared to last year. Kharif planting of pulses and cereals has increased but telebia planting has decreased relatively. Due to the storm, operations at the state's ports have come to a standstill. Due to which the prices of edible oils are rising. Due to heavy rains and wind, several groundnut oil plants have closed due to shortage of supplies. Markets are heating up due to short supply of castor oil. The kharif sowing of groundnut has also slowed down due to rains. However, due to rains in Gujarat and heat in Madhya Pradesh, soybean cultivation is slow. The government has started groundnut futures after about thirteen years but currently due to lack of groundnut season there is lethargy among the traders to return groundnut futures like Isbagol. Finally NCDEX exchange started groundnut futures in the year 2006 which was discontinued in December 2009 due to some business related reasons. Which has again been launched last week again on Wayda platform. As the spot price is currently higher than futures, hedging can be beneficial. According to the government report, in the year 2022-23, about 11 lakh tonnes of peanuts have been produced in the rabi season. Which is much less than the previous Rabi season. However, groundnut futures are expected to get support from traders in the near term.

During the last week, the bullish influence of spices was particularly strong in cumin. In addition to good export demand against low stocks in cumin, bullishness has been heavily supported by increasing crop concerns due to monsoon rains in cumin-producing Gujarat and Rajasthan. Due to heavy rains in the south and north-western areas of Rajasthan, Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, Barmer and Saurashtra and Kutch areas of Gujarat, there is an atmosphere of concern regarding the planting of crops in the near future. Lalchhol has witnessed a bullish trend with cumin futures hitting a record-breaking high of 55,600 per quintal last week. Cumin futures were soft earlier in the last day of the week. But with a dramatic surge in the last few minutes, with prices heading as high as 55,600, speculation activity is expected to be in full swing somewhere in cumin as well. In the year 2012, even in Gawar, due to speculation, the price of 3000 guar gum rose to one lakh rupees and there was a huge uproar. Today's situation is currently being debated as prevailing in Jira. Fundamental support has also been an important factor behind the non-stop bullishness of Jira futures. However, the NCDEX exchange imposed an additional margin of three per cent on both long and short terms last week to control the unrestrained bullishness. However, earlier also a margin of five percent was imposed. In total, there is currently an additional margin of eight percent in Jeera futures, as the boom of Jeera has not seen a break, the whole matter has definitely come under doubt. In the last one month, cumin has seen a significant price jump of 25 to 30 percent. The prices of the best quality cumin seeds were seen up to Rs 13000 per mane even in Jira present.