July-September urban consumption likely to boost India's GDP growth

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New Delhi: The Indian economy may perform better than expected in the second quarter of the current fiscal (July-September) on the back of robust urban consumption and services expansion.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the September quarter is estimated to be lower than the 7.8 percent in the June quarter. Analysts expect growth to be closer to 7 percent in the September quarter, compared to the earlier estimate of 6.5 percent.

The Reserve Bank of India had forecast 6.5 percent growth in July-September. Regarding this, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said that this increase may be more than expected. Key indicators such as domestic vehicle sales rose by 21.5 percent and domestic air travel by 23.1 percent in the second quarter. These indicators can be used to model urban demand growth.

Similarly, bank lending has also increased. It grew by 19.8 percent in the September quarter, while it grew by 15.8 percent in the April-June quarter. Similarly, in the second quarter, services Purchasing Managers' Index stood at 61.1, compared to 60.6 in the previous quarter.

Urban consumption plays a major role in India's growth. In addition, the services sector, especially financial services, drives growth. Sales of expensive luxury products, increase in sales of passenger vehicles, boom in domestic air traffic led to increase in personal loans in the first quarter. Then this growth continued in the second quarter as well. GDP growth is expected to be around 6.9 percent.

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