Federal austerity measures and war will reduce the GDP of emerging economies by 2.4 percent
The US Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates to curb inflation. In response, other countries are adopting similar policies to protect their currencies. A one percent increase in interest rates in the US reduces GDP by 0.5 percent in developed countries and 0.8 percent in emerging economies three years later. In this context, if interest rates in the US increase by 3 percent after the Ukraine war, it could reduce the GDP of emerging economies by up to 2.4 percent. Rising interest rates in the US are doing more than derailing global growth. This poses a threat to macroeconomic stability in developing countries. Because these economies are heavily burdened with foreign debt. The ratio of exports to external debt in developing economies averaged 127 percent, an 18 percent increase from the turbulent period of 2013. This was the period when central banks were struggling to buy bonds. This is especially important for low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Ea...