Return to the wise investor in Samvat 2078, the tide of aggression

- Autos, state-owned companies rallied against partial losses in Sensex and Nifty against last year's record returns

Samvat 2077 ended with a record investment in the global stock market. At the beginning of the year 2078, the stock markets of India and the world were at the highest level in history. After this, 2078 failed to deliver attractive returns. However, what is certain is that now is the time to be wise again rather than aggressive investing in the stock market. Time has come for not just any shares but preferred shares. The shares or companies that earn good returns are good and investors are moving away from those that fall short. With this battle to balance temptation and risk, this Samvat bids farewell with new local and global challenges.

The year of Samvat 2078 has not been very rewarding for stock market and gold and silver investors. With the changing global geopolitical (geopolitical) situation, the stock market has seen a huge fluctuation. Against the war situation and the economy coming out of Corona, historical inflation, shortage of food grains is being seen as a big challenge. Interest rates are rising at a record pace in America and Europe. 2078 departs amid concerns that interest rate hikes will lead to a recession, domestic consumption-driven economies like India will slow down, and debt crises in the African continent or Asian countries that rely on foreign aid.

After the outbreak of Corona, Sensex and Nifty rose by 49 percent between Diwali 2020 and 2021. With the lockdown in the global economy and then when the markets started to open slowly, those who had some spare savings to stash money turned to the stock market for higher returns due to salary cut in their routine work, reduced sales. The stock market benefited due to this record bullishness of the market. The package announced by the government to bring the economy out of recession and the reduced interest rates by the banks as well as abundant liquidity reduced the risks and due to this the stock market rout was increasing. Gold and silver remained negative due to soft interest rates and almost negligible inflation. Shares were the most attractive investment option as the stock market offered higher returns with less risk.

However, the year 2078 has slightly differed from Diwali 2021 to 2022. The stock market is below its record high. The situation has changed since February 2022 due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Inflation and scarcity of food grains and rising interest rates, dominance of dollar in the global market is spreading more and more, so the investment decision is based on few studies, profitability of companies - buying shares of companies that perform better and avoiding those whose earnings are weak. The mold is formed. Both Sensex and Nifty have fallen by one and a half percent in this Samvat. This is a signal of caution for investors after last year's one-and-a-half returns.

After Corona, when the market was continuously increasing, it was surprising to see buying everywhere! Prices of all listed companies, including new public issues, were rising. As the economy got back on track, other investment options started opening up along with shares, so this year saw more logical investment in the stock market. In the market now, the company or the sector which is performing well or whose future looks bright is buying only. Sensex (and Nifty) has seen negative returns after fluctuations in one year but on the other hand automobiles or public sector banks have returned and that too higher! Between these two Diwalis, the auto index on the NSE has gained 10.2 percent and the CPSE index of central pulbic sector enterprises has gained 16.7 percent. The performance of both the sectors is improving. Demand for vehicles continues to rise, with companies getting heavy bookings and people waiting in queues for months.

Due to the low supply after the recession of Corona, the prices of metals remained at a historic high, so there was heavy buying in metals stocks between 2077 and 2078. But now the Nifty Metals Index has gained only 1.9 percent this year as metal prices are falling amid fears of a lingering recession and declining industrial production. America is the largest market for Indian companies in the information and technology sector of the world. There is concern that rising interest rates in America will lead to a recession, America and American corporate giants will reduce spending in the IT sector. Against this concern, employees are now opting to work from home, working in the same companies and working stealthily (moonlighting) elsewhere. Costs are increasing in this talent-based business and hence the attractiveness of IT has decreased. The Nifty IT index has fallen by 19 percent in the past one year!

The shiny metals - gold and silver - are losing their luster due to high interest rates and the rising value of the dollar. Gold has fallen by 8.6 percent and silver by 20.6 percent in the global market. It should be noted here that silver is an industrial metal rather than an investment. It is widely used in investment industries, medical sector. When it is predicted that the recession will come, the price of the metal will definitely decrease!

Diwali to Diwali, how much return?

-	Status of 2021	Today's situation	Compensation K
-	-	-	Loss in percent
Sensex	60 , 029	59 , 307	-1.2
Nifty	17 , 888	17 , 576	-1.7
Gold	1790 dollars	1637 dollars	-8.6
Silver	23.52 dollars	18.69 dollars	-20.6
Nifty Auto	11 , 521	12 , 695	10.2
Nifty IT	35 , 177	28 , 336	-19.4
Nifty Metals	5643	5748	1.9
Nifty CPSE	2316	2703	16.7