Fluctuations in gold, fear of further lows: possibility of further rate hike in US in November

- Boolean Bits : Dinesh Parekh

- The calculation shows that even if gold falls in the world market, the weakness of the rupee in India will support gold at a lower level

In the international market, the continuous interest rate increase by the Fed strengthened the dollar and the yield of treasury bonds remained around 4 percent, and a softening trend was observed in gold. The price of gold fell by 35-40 dollars per ounce, gold fell around 1617 dollars per ounce and lastly it was 1644 dollars.

To describe the state of gold, gold needs to rest in this state. Gold may not go down much further. As soon as this 8-year gold price cycle ends, we hear the footsteps of a new 8-year bull run. Gold will show the prices of 1550-1580 dollars per ounce in November and then everyone expects that gold will rise in the next year.

At present, the risk of a global recession could weigh on gold prices, with gold softening under pressure from a stronger dollar. Gold fell sharply on Wednesday, pushing the dollar higher and Treasury bills yielding 4 percent, according to expert Ross Norman.

Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the Fed needs to keep interest rates at 4.75 percent to bring inflation under control.

While the market was confident of some bullishness in gold ahead of the interest rate hike, IG Market Strategist Yeap Jun Rong says that the risk of inflation will not be stopped by the Fed's tighter monetary policy and will come under control, but the risk of inflation will remain and will destabilize gold prices. As the demand for gold increases, the gold stock in the vault is decreasing. In the year 1492, the stock of gold in the world was only 287 tons and its structure was 4.1 cubic feet, today its size has become as big as the Eiffel Tower.

The US President's release of 1.5 million barrels of oil from reserves will dampen the oil boom, but both Saudi Arabia and Russia appear to be failing to meet global demand with oil supplies, and timing of how the oil boom affects gold prices. will only show.

In it, the Finance Minister of Russia has said that he is likely to negotiate with the Shanghai Gold Exchange to trade gold refined by Russian refineries. Gold has its own message in nature's message that it is a currency, and gold is property. Gold has always been the currency and it provides security to the currency of every country. Also, it provides confidence in the safety of people's property by standing as a shield against inflation. Now when the crisis has come people are forgetting the importance of currency and its real touch.Nowadays when gold is compared against the price of crude oil and gold is measured by the price of some commodity, everyone understands the importance of gold. As a result everyone is attracted to gold.

Turkey's gold import in September 2022 was 39000 kilos which is 16 times more than the year 2021. Hurriyat Daily News reported that Turkey imported a record-breaking 44,210 kilos of gold in 2010 as demand for gold rose against the currency and more precious metal gold was being bought instead of the lira. Also noted that in 2020, 5.50 lira was used for one dollar, today 18.58 lira for each dollar, the lira has decreased by 300 percent against the dollar. As a result people are buying gold in abundance.

Overall, the Fed's interest rate hike again in November, Treasury bills yielding more than 4 percent, oil price surge, global financial crunch, inflationary threat due to global recession, etc. will push the gold prices into a soft zone and have to look for a bullish path. In it, Iran's drones have become pawns in the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia is keeping the environment warm, spreading anxiety in Western countries, and despite the tense environment, gold is not getting bullish support, and gold will hit between 1600 and 1700 dollars per ounce.

The global silver market seems to have overshadowed the gold slump and silver prices have softened by 40-45 cents per ounce.

Silver has been trading between 1,800 and 2,000 cents an ounce due to a sell-off in New York's Comex market over the past few months. It should be noted that at the beginning of the year, silver was quoting at $26 per ounce. The purchase of silver present in it along with the consumption of silver present at low prices creates a kind of oppressive atmosphere in the silver market.