RBI's concern increased: curb inflation or increase economic growth

- Confusion of economics: Dhawal Mehta

- Weaknesses and strengths of the country's economy need to be properly assessed

India is less likely to fall into recession as the Indian government's fiscal and monetary management is not outstanding but satisfactory. India's inflation rate may have crossed the six percent limit but it was more than Britain's eight percent rate. Apart from this, many European countries also have higher inflation rate than India's inflation rate. Countries around the world display economic growth rates and other economic figures during the calendar year i.e. the period from 1st January to 31st December, whereas for historical reasons India adheres to the Kadanga financial year of 1st April to 31st March, it is difficult to compare India's performance with the annual figures of different countries. becomes Why don't we measure our performance in calendar year? The top UN agency has projected India's economic growth rate for the calendar year 2022 (which ends on December 31) at 5.7 percent, which is lower than India's above 6 percent inflation rate. This can be considered as an economic dangerous signal as so far India's economic growth rate has been higher than the rate of inflation which was last estimated at 7 percent. The same agency had set India's economic growth rate at 8.2 percent in 2021 (calendar) year. In 2023, the economic growth rate of India is estimated to be only 4.7 percent, according to the UN agency. There are three reasons for this which are not created by India but are created by the international situation: the outbreak of covid in 2020 and it is still going on at a slow pace. It has not been completely eradicated but the resulting mortality has become negligible. India has also borne the brunt of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The prices of crude oil and other forms of energy (eg gas) had skyrocketed and have now come down. And all the countries in the world have benefited from the high crude oil prices - except the OPEC countries who are happy. Global food and fuel prices have increased input prices. And because of the supply chain disruption due to the Russian war, the growth rate of all the countries of the world is decreasing (in Turkey it is 80 to 100 percent). As a result the unemployment rate of the country will increase. The Reserve Bank of India has to answer to the government for letting the inflation rate rise above 6 percent for nine consecutive months. India is now stuck in a dilemma whether to give priority to the task of bringing down the high rate of inflation within six percent or to take the economic growth rate higher. If it happens that both of Bawa get spoiled? One important reason is the poor economic condition of the present world.

A factor adding to India's worries is that its foreign exchange reserves are dwindling and what was earlier sufficient for more than 12 months of imports is now sufficient for nine or 10 months of imports. India's import bill has increased tremendously due to the rise in global commodity prices and particularly the rise in crude oil prices.

The most worrying issue in the economics and politics of the entire world is that the world is moving towards the Far Right. Every Far Right is founded on either fanatical internationalism or/and fanatical religiosity.