After rice, the export of sugar is likely to be banned

- Commodity Current - Jayavadan Gandhi

In the country including Gujarat, the rains in the month of August have not gone beyond the farmers' concern to save the kharif crops. A situation is emerging which has serious effects on the production of cotton, groundnut, paddy, sugarcane, castor, millet and animal fodder. Farmers have demanded to increase power supply in Gujarat. However, as per agriculture reports, kharif sowing of cereals, oilseeds has increased on average, but kharif sowing of pulses has declined by about eight to ten percent, changing the demand-supply equations. Apart from this, as the sugarcane required for sugar production is planted the most in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, due to the fear of reduction in production due to lack of rains, the process of raising sugar has been started before the inflation of sugar rises. The consumption of sugar in the country is increasing day by day.

In order to avoid a commotion in the supply of sugar before the elections, the government has given the green light to export only 61 lakh tonnes of sugar this year, putting a brake on the quantity of sugar exported from the country. Which was exported in addition to 1.11 crore tonnes last year. Earlier in the year 2016, about 20 percent tax was imposed on China's exports. In order to maintain the supply of sugar in the country, there is a possibility that the government will ban the export of sugar after about seven years. Sugar production in the country is expected to fall by around three to three and a half percent to around 3.17 crore tonnes this year due to lack of rains. Due to which the prices of sugar are continuously increasing. Sugar millers have also been urged to increase supply. Earlier, the government has also banned the export of rice, wheat and onion to control the inflation of food items. With the brakes on foreign trade of Indian sugar, it is likely that there will be a boom in sugar at the global level as well.

Meanwhile, rising prices of pulses have become a headache for the government. In pulses, the cultivation of tuvar and urad is reduced, and the prolonged rains are also causing serious effects on the production. Due to which the prices of Tuvar dal are expected to rise to Rs 200 in a short period of time. In Karnataka and Maharashtra too, due to damage to the tuver crop, prices have flared up in the last two months due to shortfall in supply. The government has put a lot of emphasis on the import of foreign tuvare but foreign tuvare is becoming very expensive at the local level due to the double price of tuvare in foreign countries especially in African countries. Under these circumstances, the government is emphasizing on increasing the consumption of chickpeas as an alternative to tuvar to reduce the consumption of tuvar. From the new year 2023, the import duty of Tuvar and Addad has been removed. In the current year, the production has been around 30 lakh tonnes for an average consumption of 45 lakh tonnes of Tuvar in the country. Government has started selling gram dal at Rs 60 per kg under 'Bharat Dal' scheme to increase the consumption of gram dal instead of expensive Tuwer dal. The consumption of Tuvar is highest especially in the southern states. How successful the government is in the campaign to increase the consumption of chickpeas instead of tuvere, as tuvere dal is considered a staple food in states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Kerala, depends on the time to come.

On the other hand, in the spice market last week, sluggishness prevailed due to lack of income and demand. Due to the high prices of spices, there is a gap in the prices due to reduced demand. There has been a gap of 1500 to 1800 rupees per annum in the presence of cumin, which has the highest market, and in futures there has been a gap of 9 to 10 thousand rupees per quintal. Volume and prices are collapsing due to higher prices due to profitable selling pressure and also widening of margins in futures. Earlier import deals from China at the price of $4800 per tonne defaulted.

At the same time, the global prices of cumin seeds from India, which are supplied to the global market at cheap prices from Syria, have fallen from 7400 dollars to around 6700 dollars. However, while the availability of new products of cumin is still several months away, the market is likely to remain bullish due to the limited supply of cumin in the market and the possibility of increased demand in the upcoming festive season.