Desperate efforts to control food inflation

- Commodity Current - Jayavadan Gandhi

August this year has been the driest in the last hundred years. Monsoons were active in most parts of the country in July, but the Monsoon disappeared in August, suggesting the onset of El Nino. Due to the lack of rain in August, there is a fear of affecting the growth and production rate of kharif crops like grains, pulses, telebia, spices. If there is rain in the next ten-fifteen days, the situation may become normal. The lack of monsoon has left the system sleepless due to the possibility of food prices rising again during the festive season. As the drums of elections for various state assemblies and Lok Sabha are looming in the country in the near future, the issue of inflation has become a headache for the government. The government is making several efforts to break the ever-increasing prices, especially of grains, pulses and spices. Prices of wheat, the most consumed food item, have risen by around 10-12 per cent in the past two months, hitting a seven-month high. It is feared that there is a gap of 20 percent in the government stock of wheat. Since 30 to 40 lakh tonnes of wheat is currently required to balance the supply and demand of wheat in the country, the government has made efforts to import 80 to 90 lakh tonnes from Russia at a discount. In the past, Russia has provided huge supplies of crude oil at cheap rates. The government is giving priority to import quantity of wheat from Russia either through trade or government process. Finally, in the year 2017, about 53 lakh tonnes of wheat was imported through private traders. Last year during 2022-23, there is a gap of about one crore tonnes due to incorrect estimation of wheat production in ravi season in the country. Due to which the target of government procurement is not being achieved and inflation is also going out of control. It is being discussed that the government's calculations regarding wheat have been proved wrong.

On the other hand, the constant increase in the prices of spices and pulses is also bothering the people. After Tuvar dal in pulses, now chickpeas are also booming. The government announced support prices of gram at Rs. 5335/- are being sold in the market at higher prices these days. With an increase of 12 percent in the prices of desi gram in the last one month, the prices are running at a high level of Rs 6,400 per quintal. There is talk of shortage of stock against increased demand from millers and factories during the festive season. It is expected that the price increase will be under control if the quantity above the estimate of 35 to 36 lakh tonnes comes to the market. The boom-and-bust market has been based on foreign goods with low local production and low carry-forward stock in Tuwer and Udd. Countries like Malawi, Tanzania, Sudan and Mozambique in Africa have made efforts to import Tuware. The government of Mozambique, the largest importer of tuvare, is making maximum efforts to take advantage of the situation of tuvare shortage in India. In Mozambique, the government has announced a minimum export price (MEP) of $850 to $900 per tonne against the current market of Tuwer at $600 to $700 per tonne.

Meanwhile, there is an atmosphere of chaos in the spice market due to huge fluctuations in present and future due to the possibility of increase in demand due to festivals against the revenue shortfall of cumin. Trade in cumin has become dangerous. Despite the reins of the four- to six-percent circuit, there are prospects of an average bullish yoke in prices till Diwali. In the year 2008 black pepper and in the year 2010 there was a terrible boom in guar.