China's economic slowdown worries the whole world... .
China, the world's manufacturing hub, has accounted for 40 percent of global economic growth in the last decade
- Youth unemployment has risen to a historic high of 23 percent, meaning that every fourth youth is unemployed.
- Imports and exports are both decreasing which indicates that manufacturing is decreasing.
- China's slowing economy is unlikely to have much impact on India.
China, the manufacturing hub of India and accounting for 40 percent of global economic growth, is slowing down. A slowdown in China's economy could have a direct impact on soybean farmers in Brazil, technology producers in the United States, chemicals producers in India, and minerals exporters in Chile, Australia and Canada. China produces many more goods in different countries of the world than the 140 crore people of China consume. This imports the raw materials required for production and will directly affect other countries. A possible slowdown in China can shake the whole world, which is suffering from the corona epidemic and then inflation.
Finance Secretary of India T.V. Somanathan, however, believes that China's economic slowdown is unlikely to have much impact on India. It is expected that India's imports from China are high and exports are low, so there will not be much impact on domestic production. A similar argument was made during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. At that time there was an argument that the American financial system was weakened and India's reliance on it was less so it would not be affected. After 2008, the economic development in India slowed down, the central government was forced to make huge cuts in the excise duty to increase consumption, the Reserve Bank had to reduce the interest rate and increase the liquidity. The stock market was eclipsed by recession and exports saw a decline.
China's economy is a formidable global power. The size of China's economy is about 17 trillion dollars. Six times bigger than India for understanding! China accounted for 40 percent of the world's economic growth in the last decade. Against this, the share of America is 22 percent and that of the European Union is only nine percent. If such a large economy slows down, it will definitely have an impact on the world and should be worried and cautious.
China's economy is debt-driven. There is huge debt in the property, infrastructure and real estate markets. The People's Bank of China is reducing interest rates to prevent the economy from slowing down. Countries like Europe, Britain, America, India, Australia, Russia, Turkey are increasing interest rates to control inflation. Over the past decade, China's total debt has been two and a half times its economy. In terms of figures, about 45 lakh crore dollars. Apart from the government debt, the debt owed to local people and companies has also increased. China's debt is higher than America, Europe. The economy is in a deflation phase. That means the prices of goods are decreasing. Second, it also means that the responsibility of those who have incurred debt has increased. You have to repay more than what you owe.
China's imports have been falling for five months, exports for three - meaning both domestic consumption and production for the world have fallen. Youth unemployment has risen to a historic high of 23 percent, meaning that every fourth youth is unemployed. In this situation, China's economy is on the verge of ruin. And if such a big economic superpower falls, weakens or falls ill, it will definitely have an impact on the world.
The central bank - the People's Bank of China - has been continuously cutting interest rates to boost domestic consumption, provide affordable credit to consumers and increase liquidity in the economy. The interest rate was 4.25 percent in March 2020 which has been reduced to 2.50 percent after this week's cut. Besides, money is continuously being poured in through short term repos.
Unemployment is increasing, the figures of which the government has now ordered not to disclose. Local customers are not buying. Houses are not selling in the property market, companies are scrambling to ease terms with banks to pay off debt and some are filing for bankruptcy. Both imports and exports are declining which indicates that manufacturing is declining. On the other hand, due to Russia's war with Ukraine, China's repeated aggression in the Indian Ocean, the ongoing cold war between the US and China over Taiwan, the world is gradually separating from China even diplomatically. Companies from America and East Asian countries are moving production to countries other than China, so China has to fight both locally and globally.
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