By the end of the year, the rupee is expected to fall further to 85

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Mumbai: The Indian rupee will depreciate further against the US dollar for the remainder of this year. A Reuters poll on Thursday showed that the domestic trade balance and the U.S. It saw its steepest decline in nine years due to rising interest rates. Today, the rupee slipped to a record low of 83.29. According to the median forecast in a survey of 14 bankers and foreign exchange advisers, it is likely to fall further to 85 by December.

The South Asian currency has tumbled nearly 12% so far this year. Which is equal to its decline in the whole of 2013, while the US The Federal Reserve's decision to slow its bond purchases led to a broad sell-off in emerging market currencies. Estimates in the survey were between 83.25 and 86, indicating broad consensus that the rupee will not improve this year.

Bank of Baroda Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis said that the rupee may fall to the level of 85 by December, as no major changes are seen in the external environment. The dollar continues to trend higher and domestic fundamentals are weak. India's current account deficit is expected to be 3% to 3.5%. A high trade deficit puts pressure on the rupee when the global economic scenario is not conducive to portfolio flows.

India recorded an average monthly trade deficit of $23.2 billion for the first nine months of this year, compared to an average of $15.3 billion in 2021. Meanwhile, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation have hampered capital inflows.

The dollar index has rallied nearly 18% this year due to the Fed's rate hikes and prompted investors to pull capital out of emerging market assets. According to the data, foreign investors have withdrawn $23.4 billion from Indian equities and $1.4 billion from debt so far this year.

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